In India's dry regions, farmers face a tough choice – work together on crops or risk losing everything. Cooperation is the key for farm prosperity given serious water shortages in these areas.
In the heart of India’s rainfed agricultural regions, as the rabi season approaches, farmers face a critical decision: which crops to sow. This choice is not simple, especially when water security is an issue as water for irrigation is limited. The decision-making process of these farmers offers a fascinating real-world application of a well-known concept in game theory – the prisoner’s dilemma.
The prisoner’s dilemma traditionally describes a situation where two suspects, separated and unable to communicate, must decide whether to confess or remain silent. In our agricultural scenario, replace the prisoners with farmers and the confession with crop selection, and we have an interesting parallel.
Consider two neighbouring farmers, let’s call them Rani and Rita, who share a common water source – a tank that recharges both their wells. This water is sufficient to irrigate either four acres of water-intensive crops (let’s call it Crop 1) or 8 acres of less water-demanding crops (Crop 2). Each farmer owns four acres of land, setting the stage for our agricultural dilemma.
Crop 1 is the more lucrative option. It requires an input cost of Rs 40,000 per acre but promises a yield of 20 quintals per acre, selling at Rs 8,000 per quintal. This translates to a return of Rs 1.20 lakh per acre. Crop 2, while less profitable, is also less risky. It needs Rs 25,000 per acre in inputs, yields the same 20 quintals per acre, but sells at Rs 5,000 per quintal, resulting in a return of Rs 75,000 per acre.
For Rani and Rita, the temptation to maximise returns by planting Crop 1 is strong. However, if both choose this water-intensive crop, there won’t be enough water to go around. This could lead to crop failure, meaning they would incur the input costs without the expected returns – a significant loss.
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Without cooperation or information sharing, Rani might opt for Crop 1, hoping Rita will choose Crop 2, and vice versa. This non-cooperative strategy often leads to overexploitation of the water resource and potential losses for both farmers.
The theoretical ideal – the Nash equilibrium – would be reached when Rani and Rita experimentally determine the optimal area for Crop 1 that the water supply can sustain and both adhere to this norm. However, this situation is largely theoretical, as variables like rainfall and soil moisture can distort their information and lead to deviations.
In a cooperative model where information is shared, Rani and Rita could maximise returns by making collective crop selections. They might put equal areas under Crop 1 based on water availability or take turns benefiting in alternate years.
The optimal solution would be for each farmer to plant two acres of Crop 1 and two acres of Crop 2, maximising collective returns while using water sustainably. However, reaching this agreement isn’t automatic. It requires specific preconditions, especially when multiple farmers like Rani and Rita share a common water resource.
This is where community organisations like self-help groups (SHGs) and agricultural cooperatives come into play. These institutions foster cooperation and offer a platform for regular, meaningful communication.
Over time, these groups help build long-term relationships that strengthen trust among members. They also establish shared goals that go beyond immediate profits, often focusing on broader community development and sustainability.
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Furthermore, these organisations create a framework for collective decision-making, enabling farmers to establish rules and norms for resource sharing and crop planning. These community organisations can help shift farmers like Rani and Rita from a non-cooperative situation (loaded with uncertainties and potential losses) to a cooperative “maximum output” scenario.
Understanding this agricultural application of the prisoner’s dilemma is crucial for policymakers, farmers and community leaders. The solution to water security lies not just in water management techniques, but in building mechanisms for cooperation in communities. SHGs and other such institutions provide that platform for people to discuss, share and plan for collective action without fear of missing out.
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The lead image on top shows a group of farmers coming together to plan their crop selection for the season (Photo courtesy HUF)
Rishu Garg is the program manager at Hindustan Unilever Foundation.
