As diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan rise, the future of a 64-year-old water agreement hangs in the balance, raising questions not only in political circles but in regions that rely on these rivers for sustenance. What will become of the treaty that has survived three wars?
The recent attack in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir, has once again brought the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) to a contentious position. On Thursday, 24 April 2024, India officially informed Pakistan about its decision to keep the IWT ‘in abeyance’ with immediate effect, saying that Islamabad has breached the treaty’s conditions.
While this question has become a political talking point, in rural communities across northern India and Pakistan, the focus is much more urgent and personal.
Signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty divides the six rivers of the Indus basin between India and Pakistan. The waters of three eastern rivers, namely Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas, were allocated to India for exclusive use. The waters of the western rivers – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab were allocated to Pakistan.
India has also been given the right to generate hydroelectricity through run-of-the-river (RoR) projects on the western rivers, subject to certain conditions.
All the waters of the eastern rivers were allocated to India for her unrestricted use, while India is under obligation to let flow all the waters of the western rivers, except for the domestic, non-consumptive, and other uses permitted in the treaty.
India has constructed Bhakra Dam on Satluj, Pong and Pandoh Dam on Beas, and Thein (Ranjitsagar) on Ravi. These storage works, together with other works like the Beas-Sutlej link, the Madhopur-Beas link, and the Indira Gandhi Nahar project have helped India utilise nearly the whole share of its waters.
The treaty has been a rare example of cooperation between the two countries, withstanding wars, political shifts, and decades of tensions. But for the people who rely on these rivers, it’s more than a pawn in the game of diplomacy. It’s their lifeline.
While debates over the Indus Waters Treaty grow louder in political and diplomatic circles, in rural areas across both India and Pakistan, the stakes are far more grounded—and deeply personal. Agriculture isn’t just an occupation in these regions; it forms the backbone of local economies, supports family incomes, and sustains national food systems.
In Pakistan, where around two-thirds of the rural population depends on farming, the treaty underpins daily survival. Nearly 80% of the total flow from the Indus basin reaches Pakistan, irrigating millions of acres, especially in the agrarian provinces of Punjab and Sindh.
The agricultural sector contributes 23% to the country’s GDP and is vital to the livelihoods of 68% of rural residents. Any disruption—whether due to political decisions or seasonal variation—could drastically reduce crop yields, increase food insecurity, and strain an already fragile economy. With limited storage capacity and mounting groundwater stress, Pakistan has few buffers in place to manage such shocks.
India’s farmers also face vulnerabilities. States like Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh rely heavily on the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers to maintain regular irrigation cycles. While India draws a smaller share from the western rivers under the treaty, timely and steady river flows remain essential for crops like rice and wheat, key both to rural incomes and the national food supply.
Delays or reductions in water availability can throw off planting schedules and depress seasonal yields.
India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is politically significant, but an immediate halt to water flows is unlikely. Most of India’s existing infrastructure on the western rivers—like Kishanganga and Ratle—is run-of-the-river, offering minimal storage. Without new large-scale reservoirs, India cannot divert or block substantial volumes of water anytime soon.
The move also comes during the high-flow season, when glacier melt naturally boosts river volumes, further limiting short-term control. While India may now stop sharing hydrological data—potentially hampering Pakistan’s water planning—the real impact will unfold slowly. Experts say India’s strategic advantage lies not in cutting flows now, but in expanding long-term water use within treaty limits.
Still, even small disruptions risk unsettling farming cycles and food systems, especially in water-dependent rural areas.
Without on-the-ground clarity, there’s no simple way to sum up what rural communities want. But if past reactions are any indication, the common thread seems to be this: stability matters. Water that arrives predictably allows families to plan, plant, and earn. And in regions shaped by rivers, consistency in flow often translates to consistency in life.
The Indus River, winding through rugged valleys, is central to the story of water and life in the region. (Photo credit: Shutterstock)
